Arizona Housing Market Trends & Forecast
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The Average Payment to Income chart reflects the average payment relative to the income of the average person in Arizona.
This is probably the single most important ratios to watch in the real estate market. Affordability drives prices. The chart is more representative of the market because it uses monthly payment as the numerator rather than house prices. It reflects more of how the average person purchases a house.
Full dataset to calculate this ratio available here. Linear regression is used to estimate historical values of prices and income, Using Simple Multiple Linear Regression Models to Estimate Missing Data
This chart shows the 100-day moving average of the Arizona Payment to Income Ratio. This dataset should be stationary. The high vales indicate bad times to buy and low values indicate good times to buy.
The Average Price to Income chart reflects the average house price relative to the income of the average person in Arizona.
This is probably the second most important ratios to watch in the real estate market. The difference in this chart and the previous one is would indicate if a house was a good price if you’re paying cash.
Full dataset to calculate this ratio available here. Linear regression is used to estimate historical values of prices and income, Using Simple Multiple Linear Regression Models to Estimate Missing Data
This chart displays the 100-day moving average of the Arizona Price to Income Ratio. This dataset should be stationary. The high vales indicate bad times to buy and low values indicate good times to buy.
The Monthly Median Sales Price reflects the middle price point of homes sold within a month. This is one of the most important prices to watch in the real estate market. It removes the outliers to give an investor a true idea of what is happening in the market.
The Average Sales Price per Square Foot metric is also one of the most important metrics to watch in the real estate market. Median will eliminate the outliers. While this metric can be skewed by extremely high end or low end house with low volume in the market.
The Average List Price per Square Foot gives an indication of the seller’s expectations in the market, reflecting the asking price for a square foot of space in properties currently up for sale.
When the average list price starts to spike over the average sales price it is the sign of an extremely hot market. Sellers essentially believe they can get whatever price they ask for. This is typically a good time to be a seller and not a buyer. Likewise if the average list price is low relative to the average sales price it is indicative of a buyers market.
When price cuts spike it’s a good time to be a buyer, typically. It means that sellers are eager to sell or cannot sell so they keep cutting the price. This gives the buyer the opportunity to offer a lower than list price and have a greater chance of that offer being accepted.
Days of Inventory measures the average time a listing remains on the market before being sold, with lower days indicating a faster-moving market and higher days pointing to a slower market.
Months of Supply is a vital metric that estimates how long the current inventory of properties would last given the current rate of sales, shedding light on the balance between supply and demand.
Active Weekly Counts provide a snapshot of the total number of active listings on the market each week, helping assess whether inventory levels are rising or falling over time.
The Annual Sales Rate highlights the pace of property sales on a yearly basis. The lower this indicator the better for buyers the opposite is true for sellers.
Listings Under Contract shows the volume of properties that have agreed-upon terms between buyers and sellers but have not yet closed, indicating imminent sales activity.
The Listing Success Rate is the percentage of listings that successfully sell versus those that are withdrawn or expire. If the lower this value the better time it is to buy.
The Contract Ratio in real estate is a critical metric that indicates the market’s health and balance; a high ratio suggests a seller’s market with strong demand and fast-moving inventory, while a low ratio could signal a buyer’s market with more available inventory and potentially lower prices, making it an essential tool for both buyers and sellers to gauge competition and market trends.
Notices of Trustee reflect the number of properties that have received a notice of default, which can be a precursor to foreclosure, signaling potential future market supply and financial stress. As this spikes it is inevitable that good deals are right around the corner.
New Listings by Month count the properties newly listed for sale, providing a fresh look at the market’s inventory and the rate at which sellers are entering the market.
Listings Canceled per Week measure the number of property listings that are withdrawn from the market, which may indicate seller hesitation or shifts in market conditions.
Expired Listings represent properties whose listings have reached the end of their contract period without a sale, often pointing to pricing or market mismatches.
The Sales Price to List Price Ratio compares the final sale price of a property to its listed price. A higher ratio indicates a hotter market.
The Under Contract Weekly Average List Price per Sq Ft tracks the listing price per square foot of properties that have gone under contract each week. This price can be misleading and should be handled carefully as you don’t know the contract price that the offer was accepted at.
Monthly Average Lease Price per Square Foot examines the rental market’s price trends, offering insights into the cost of leasing residential space over time.
