It was completely unsolicited and I have no idea what the source of it is. Could it be a potential pump and dump given the current market circumstances? Maybe… so I decided to dig a little into this company. It looks like it spiked a few years back and has been basically worthless for the last 3 years.
What’s interesting is it looks like it is being pumped again recently. Here is the last 2 years.
Zooming in closer it looks like there has been a massive amount of volume increase in the last 3 days. Hence my text message perhaps?
What about Google Trends did people recently just start searching for ULTH or ULTHF?
I wonder what reddit has to say.
Finally, I wonder what their financials look like? Would I be comfortable holding this short position?
Let’s keep in mind this company has a market cap of $42m
Only $80k in cash.
$7,500 in accounts receivable
$92k in assets
$323k in liabilities
-$5,032,200 in retaind earnings
But Lithium is rare and the price is about to explode!
So let’s take a look at LIT which is an ETF that holds a bunch of Lithium related stocks. https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/lit/
As you can see from their holdings ULTHF is not listed. This adds further evidence this stock should be shorted. In fact, if you wanted to take a more market neutral approach to this trade you could go long an equal-weighted amount of LIT.
Time to get short
Seems like more pump and dump hype. I’m definitely going short.
I tried to get short on 2/24 @ 1.40 but my broker didn’t have any shares available.
So I got an email this morning…
I was able to open a position this morning short @ 1.15. It has fallen already so I’m opening another short position @ 1.01. This trade would already be up 40% if it wasn’t rejected yesterday.
Last year I was looking to up my precious metal holdings. I like to keep 10% of my net worth in gold and 1% in silver. I bumped my gold holdings to 20% given the Coronavirus outbreak amongst other reasons outlined below. However, when I went to go and purchase silver from APMEX. I noticed the cheapest bullion I could get was something like 10-20% over spot price So I switched to long-dated options instead. I landed on a few. But eventually piled in on one a strike price of 30 with an expiration of January 21st, 2022. I bought these for $1.15 at the time. Looks like I actually picked the worst out of the four that I bought. No worries though I’m not complaining at a 192.68% increase.
The reason for my trade were as follows:
Physical silver was trading way over spot price at APMEX
The gold to silver ratio was the highest it has ever been in the last 100-years.
When governments get in trouble they just inflate your money away. It has been this way since the beginning of time.
The federal reserve rate was basically dropped to 0% indicating massive problems.
Silver is the “poor man’s gold” as Covid struck harder I assumed it would rally on the Fed’s printing press which was sure to accelerate and the Fed’s balance sheet had spike massively.
The fed now owns 1/3 of all mortgage-backed securities. They are literally bailing out every asset class at risk of jeopardizing the future of the sovereign credit.
It has been rumored that online bullion sites have ran out of silver until the markets open tomorrow and Wall Street Bets may have their sites set on SLV as their next target. I’m not so sure they can pump silver up 1,600% like they did with GME but it will be interesting to see what can be done. Supply of silver is already very low after the markets closed Friday. Here is a quote from WSB, “Corner the market. GV thinks its possible to squeeze $SLV, FUCK AFTER SEEING $AG AND $GME EVEN I THINK WE CAN DO IT. BUY $SLV GO ALL IN TH GAINZ WILL BE UNLIMITED. DEMAND PHYSICAL IF YOU CAN. FUCK THE BANKS.”
I just put in a big order for SLV options 30.5 strike expiring 2/5/21. My issue is the market is closed. I put in the order at .23 limit and I’m not sure if it will get filled. Regardless I’m still holding a bunch of futures from my previous trade. Future markets are already showing a large breakout.
Here is a message from the CEO of APMEX:
APMEX Statement On Current Market Conditions:
In the last week, we have seen a dramatic shift in Silver demand from our customers. For example, the ratio of ounces sold per day was running about two times earlier in the week and closer to four times the average demand by the end of the week. Once markets closed on Friday, we saw demand hit as much as six times a typical business day and more than 12 times a normal weekend day. Combined with the extremely high demand levels, we are also seeing a surge in new customers. On Saturday alone, we added as many new customers as we usually add in a week.
Any Precious Metal dealer will take a long position in the futures market to protect against spot price exposure when the markets open. We do this because it is our goal not to take a speculative position on metal. The weekends are unique as we are not able to real-time hedge our position. We took an aggressive position this weekend, but clearly could not have predicted the volumes that were seen. We have partnerships around to world that allowed us to cover these long positions, but only to a point. Once we exceeded our comfort levels, we had little choice but to stop the sale of Silver on our website. This was a difficult decision to make and unprecedented in our history.
As we evaluate the markets, it is difficult to know where Silver’s price and demand will go in the coming day and weeks. APMEX is highly capitalized and has more than $150 million in inventory to support demand. We have made strategic decisions to procure additional metal, locking up any metal we can find in the market place. We suspect premiums will rise and rise quickly, as we are seeing significant increases in our costs, when we can even locate the metal. It is also highly likely that we will need an additional day or two to fill orders based on current order counts. The one guarantee we can make to our customers is that you will only be sold metal that is on-site, or we have procured the metal with a firm commitment date from our partners. In markets like this, we feel this is the best approach a retailer can take, as no one can predict product availability.
We want to thank our customers for their patience and understanding during these turbulent times. APMEX prides itself on best in class service and delivering on promises to our customers.
I remember back in 2000 during the dot com bubble all of these companies would pay you just to surf the internet using their browser or plugin. We may be in another bubble of some sort but that’s not my purpose of this article.
Recently I received a pop up on Facebook for SoFi. A free $350 just for funding a loan. Interesting, so for kicks I applied. My application is still pending but I can’t imagine I won’t get funded. They had a minimum loan amount of $10,001.
They indicate that they will give you the $300 within 30 days of funding your loan. The interest rate is 9.25% which is about $77/month in interest. So you’ll want to pay the loan off with the money you receive as soon as the bonus funds are received. Technically you’re probably only going to net $223. But hey that’s almost 40% of what the government is giving out for stimulus.
What’s interesting is this company is also giving away a free $50 in stocks just for opening an investment account. Another free $25 in Bitcoin just for opening a crypto currency account and buying at least $10 worth of crypto.
Seems like they’re pretty desperate to boost their sales for their upcoming IPO and inflate their valuation. You might as well take advantage of it.
You always want to make sure your water is at a pH of 5.8. I calibrated my pH meter and then measured my tap and RO water. You can always then measure these two as a baseline to make sure your meter doesn’t need to be recalibrated.
Tap water pH: 6.1 / RO water pH: 6.6
1.16.21-Tap water pH: 7.3 / RO water pH: 8.2
Here is a list of things you will need to calibrate your water.
First step is to simply drop your seeds into RO water. I would recommend a max of 5 per cup for 15 hours.
2 green crack seeds in RO water. 4 Jack Herer in RO water.
Seeds have been soaking for 16 hours moving to napkin in Ziplock, black bag, and box. Placed on Ether Miner for heat.
Checked the seeds no growth yet.
Two green crack seeds have sprouted so I’m going to move these to root riot plugs.
The four Jack Herer seeds have not yet sprouted so I’m going to stick them back in a ziplock covered in a paper towel, black bag, and box.
Jack Herer seeds still don’t seem to be germinating that quick. I’m going to leave them another day.
Also no sprouting in the humidity dome from the Green Crack plants.
One of the Green Crack plants popped through in the pm.
So I probably let this Green Crack plant go for too long in the dark. I’m going to move it into the grow tent where it can get a ton of blue spectrum light. This will promote bushy growth vs. the red spectrum which will cause growth in length and is better for flowering.
I’m going to move all the Jack Herer seeds to the humidity dome with the exception of one which doesn’t appear to have popped open. One of them appears to have broke when I moved it. I feel like I may have left my paper towel too wet.
Here is the placement of the seeds in the humidity dome.
You’re going to want a humid environment for your plants. I would recommend something like this.
Any of these smaller lights will work for the seedling phase.
You are eventually going to need something more powerful. This is what I use.
Looks like all of the seedlings popped except one. Haven’t added any water since the original move from the plastic bag. Also the last Jack Herer seed is refusing to germinate. I left it in the bag but typically when it takes this long they’re duds.
Pretty sure that bottom left Jack Herer is shot. Plus the last seed doesn’t appear to be germinating.
Looks like roots are starting to appear. I’ll probably move these to a hydroponic setup soon.
Now that these seedlings are getting a little older I’m going to add some Clonex nutrients. I’m going to mix up 1 gallon of water and 18mL of Clonex.
So I definitely got lazy and waited too long to move these into my hydroponic box in my window seal. You can see some of the leaves are in bad shape.
I’m going to put these in my south facing window seal for light. I’m going to supplement it with a florescent light 18 hours on and 6 hours off.
Water and Nutrients
Here is my template for maintaing the hydroponic system. This one is just a single 5 gallon bucket that pumps the water onto the roots and it drains back down.
The main nutrients I use are made by General Hydroponics.
I also use a few additives in addition to these.
h2o2 also known as hydrogen peroxide. In hydroponic setups you’re apt to get some type of root rot or infection. I use h2o2 as a preventative along with Armor Si made by General Hydroponics.
You’ll want to use RO water with your setup. This way your water is pure. With that being said it’s important to add calcium and magnesium back into the water.
Flushing your water
Every 7-14 days you’ll want to completely drain and flush your water. What I’ll typically do is drain all the water. Replace it with tap water and this FloraKleen product. Let this run for 2-4 hours and then completely drain it.
I haven’t done anything to the plants. I just let them grow with 18 hours of LED light and then the natural sunlight through the window.
I wanted to post an update of what the roots look like at this point.
I also lost one of the plants and only had 4 growing. So I decided to germinate two more today. A Harlequin and a Blueberry plant. I tried twice to get a Harlequin to germinate and failed both times. So I’m just going to move this Blueberry over to the window seal hydroponic setup.
The Blueberry is looking healthy after a few days.
So I neglected these plants again. I haven’t added any nutrients since the initial move on 1.23.2021. It gives you an idea of how maintenance-free this setup is. You can also see a large amount of growth in a relatively short timeframe. The roots grew way too big to pull through the plastic containers so I lost a good portion of them while transplanting tonight. It will be interesting to see how they respond. You can see how they’re in their final spot which is the 5-gallon bucket until they flower and harvest. I had to leave two of them in the window seal due to a lack of room in the tent. Their roots are going to get way too big for this setup. I may let them flower early or move them to a dirt container.
Notice the Blueberry is the smallest one and is about 10 days old.
The plants are now in this tent.
The LED light I’m using is this.
You’ll also want a fan to keep the airflow and vent the plants. I use this one.
I use these timers to control the lights.
You’ll also need a humidifier to keep your air humid.
The method I use are 5-gallon buckets in which one bucket is the control bucket. It’s empty and they all drain back into it. Then the water gets re-circulated using a pump to spray the roots.
I’ve always been fascinated by technology. I love building all types of electronic projects and automating things. Recently I ran across a guy who discussed building a battery backup using recycled scooter batteries that contained 18650 rechargeable batteries. The same ones that you find in Tesla cars and Powerwalls.
I started thinking. I wonder if it would be possible to trickle charge a battery during low-cost energy hours (6PM-3PM) and then dump it back into the grid when the electricity was expensive(3PM-6PM). Or at least offset your peak hour usage with battery power. So I created some formulas and crunched some numbers. Before you read any further I want to say this is a complete hypothetical experiment. I would never connect this to my SRP system and risk them terminating my services.
Here is a list of SRP’s different electricity rates. You can see the greatest offset is in the months of May, June, July, August, September, and October. The variance in winter is not that great and you really can’t save that much using this method.
Analyzing the ROI this setup using a simple 3kWh battery and a 1kW inverter we can yield 18.27% with a completely paid for system in 5.47 years. Not a bad return for someone with a little bit of money to invest.
A popular strategy that I have followed in my investments is crowdsourcing hedge fund manager investments. Many people don’t know this but any hedge fund that manages over $100 million dollars must report their stock holdings on a form called a 13f. This is filed with the SEC. There is a website that conveniently maps all of these filings so you can scan through your favorite investment manager and see what stocks they are buying and selling.
For instance, if you’re a fan of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger you can take a look at Berkshire Hathaway’s holdings – https://whalewisdom.com/filer/berkshire-hathaway-inc Here is a list of their holdings which are over 1% of their portfolio
Or may be you’re a fan of Ray Dalio and you want to see what Bridgewater is holding? Here is a list of all their holdings that represent more than 1% of their portfolio.
Let’s take a look at Jim Simon’s fund Renaissance Technologies.
You get the point. You are able to get some pretty good insight as to what massive hedge funds are buying.
What I like about Whale Wisdom is they categorize the most successful hedge fund managers using what they refer to as a WhaleIndex.They then put together a list of 30 stocks based on successful fund managers. Some of their requirements are as follows.
Between 5 and 750 holdings in their 13F filing
At least 3 consecutive years of quarterly 13F filings
Hold no fewer than five stocks in its portfolio
Manage more than $100 million in marketable securities
Hold at least 20% of its portfolio in its top 20 stocks
Managers considered to be a bank, trust, pension, or insurance company are excluded
The top 40 managers who have maintained an average WhaleScore over the past 5-years higher than the five-year average WhaleScore of the S&P 500 is used in the WhaleIndex. Based on the holdings disclosed on their SEC filings, WhaleWisdom identifies the 100 stocks most commonly held among the respective managers’ 13F holdings.
The Whale Fund 2.0 is the one I follow. Since 2006 this strategy has yielded 1,345% – https://whalewisdom.com/whaleindex/portfolio_2_0
A few words of caution
13f filings come out 45 days after the quarter ends. This means the data is somewhat stale. It should also be noted that the fund could have purchased that stock at any time during the quarter. Meaning the data could be as old as 135 days. Secondly, funds are not required to report short positions or hedged positions. So you should not assume you know exactly what their portfolio consists of.
You’ll want to find a broker that allows for fractional investing if you don’t have enough money to buy full shares. Here are a couple for reference.
Despite its downfalls, Whale Wisdom’s returns are still solid. While I wouldn’t recommend this strategy for your entire portfolio this is a good strategy to deploy a fixed percentage of your portfolio. There is also a book that written about this concept which you can find here – https://www.amazon.com/Invest-With-The-House-Hacking-ebook/dp/B01A3L1VEO and also an ETF that was created named VIP ETF
At times when creating trading strategies using big data you need access to historical economic data. One of the best sources of data is the Economic Research branch of the St. Louis Federal Reserve or FRED. Today I’m going to show you how to pull that data into a dataframe so that you can analyze it using machine learning or AI.
When analyzing historical time frame data in machine learning it needs to be normalized. In this code example I will show how to get S&P data then convert it to a percent of daily increase/decrease as well as a logarithmic daily increase/decrease.
Colab can be found here – https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1Wvh7mRX0PUthBhXw1HD5tJAC8mQr6DYH?usp=sharing
The first part of this code will use yfinance as our datasource.
#we're going to use yfinance as our data source
!pip install yfinance --upgrade --no-cache-dir
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import yfinance as yf
Next we’re going to create a dataframe called df and download SPY data from 2000 to it. Finally we’ll print the result of df so you can get an idea of what is inside of it.
#Here we're creating a dataframe for spy data from 2000-current
df = yf.download('spy',
#actions='inline',) #adjust for stock splits and dividends
#print the dataframe to see what lives in it
We’re going to drop all the columns except Adj Close. Then we’ll rename it adj_close. Next we’ll create a column labeled simple_rtn. This is the daily simple return or percent increase/decrease. The next line of code creates a logarithmic increase/decrease. Logarithmic gives equal bearing to the Y axis and can be defined as follows, “A logarithmic price scale uses the percentage of change to plot data points, so, the scale prices are not positioned equidistantly. A linear price scale uses an equal value between price scales providing an equal distance between values.”